EPC team


Amanda Paul
Amanda Paul
Senior Policy Analyst
Tel:  +32 (0)2 286.93.76
Twitter: @amandajanepaul

Amanda Paul is a foreign and security policy analyst.  Her main areas of expertise include Turkish foreign, security and domestic policy; security and conflict resolution in the Black Sea/Eurasia region, Russian foreign policy in the former Soviet space and EU foreign policy in its Eastern neighbourhood.

Presently employed as a Senior Policy Analyst at the EPC she is responsible for managing EPC projects related to Turkey; the EUs Eastern Neighbourhood and Caspian region; the Middle East and Gulf region and Jihadist radicalisation. She is also Associate Senior Research Fellow at the International Centre for Policy Studies in Kyiv, Ukraine, where she contributes to research and projects related to Ukraine and the broader region. 

Prior to working at the EPC, Amanda worked at the Brussels based think-tank, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), and Türk Henkel in Istanbul.

Amanda is also an experienced journalist and columnist, writing on issues related to Turkey, Russian Foreign Policy and the Eurasia region. She is also broadly published in academic journals and other publications.

Internal Responsibilities

Manages the EPC’s Turkey project; Ukraine Forum; EU engagement with the South Caucasus; the Challenge of Jihadist radicalisation

Area of expertise

Turkish foreign, security and domestic policy; security and conflict resolution in the Black Sea/Eurasia region, Russian foreign policy in the former Soviet space and EU foreign policy in its Eastern neighbourhood


English, Turkish, French, Russian

Click here for Publications

Click here for Public appearances and Acknowledgments

Click here for Media appearances


Ukraine should double down on reform in 2018
17 January 2018

Getting back on track

Eastern Partnership summit and Ukraine’s ‘return to Europe’ at times of uncertainty
23 November 2017

Ukraine’s expectations for the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit.

The EU should not turn its back on Turkey
17 October 2017

Allowing Turkey-EU relations to come to a standstill and decline further is in the interest of neither the EU nor Turkey

Turkey's relations with Germany and the EU: Breaking the vicious circle
2 October 2017

Navigating the complex relationship between the EU and Turkey

Crans-Montana - A ‘now or never’ moment for a Cyprus settlement?
26 June 2017

The parties must make the most of the present favourable conditions

The Challenge of Jihadist Radicalisation - In Europe and Beyond
22 March 2017

Countering violent extremism

Constitutional changes in Turkey: A presidential system or the president’s system?
24 January 2017

Turkey’s proposed executive presidency, and what it means for Turkish democracy

Cyprus negotiations (part I) - Heading into the end game?
9 January 2017

The last mile is the longest

The EU cannot afford to just ‘muddle through’ on Turkey
8 December 2016

How can Turkey and the EU move beyond false promises and distrust?

Nagorno-Karabakh: Is it time to bring peacekeeping and confidence building back on the agenda?
29 September 2016

Is a breakthrough on the horizon for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

EU visa-liberalisation for Turks: just around the corner?
3 May 2016

Can the issue of visa-liberalisation put the future of the EU-Turkey deal at risk?

The EU cannot remain a passive observer of the Karabakh conflict
7 April 2016

The EU needs to be more involved in the renewed diplomatic to resolve the Karabakh conflict

Turkey makes a mockery of Europe's claim to uphold democratic values
16 March 2016

Turkey is on a dangerous trajectory and the current policy of the EU is making the journey easier

Nagorno-Karabakh and the arc of crises on Europe's borders
3 February 2016

The EU should play a more active role in trying to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The AKP rebooted – What next for Turkey?
3 November 2015

Turkey chooses stability and security over fundamental rights and freedom

Turkey's new election: War or peace?
30 October 2015

So much at stake

EU-Iran relations post-Vienna: the way forward
16 July 2015

Re-engaging with Iran

Turkey votes - Part II - All shook up – A first assessment of Turkey’s post-election political landscape
8 June 2015

A victory for democracy in Turkey

Turkey’s 7 June parliamentary elections - Part I - A pivotal moment for Turkey’s future
3 June 2015

Turkey’s future hangs in the balance

The South Caucasus - Between integration and fragmentation
21 May 2015

The South Caucasus at a crossroads

The Eastern Partnership Riga Summit should not be a non-event
20 May 2015

Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have paid the price for their pro-European choice; the EU should be ready to match their courage.

Crimea one year after Russian annexation
24 March 2015

Why the international community shouldn’t forget about Crimea

Internet “Freedom” in Turkey
2 March 2015

Turkey encroaches on fundamental rights and freedoms by limiting the access to the internet and social media

EPC Special Collection: Moldovan Elections
28 November 2014

Collection of analysis on Moldova

The parliamentary elections in Ukraine: new hope?
21 October 2014

Ukraine's challenge for change

Moldova - Heading into a hot autumn
6 October 2014

State of play and the prospects of Moldova since signing the Association Agreement with the EU

Why the EU must reengage with Turkey
29 September 2014

In for a roasting? Turkey EU relations

Turkey votes: Part III – President Erdoğan – A foregone conclusion?
10 July 2014

Turkey pre-General Election Insights

Ukraine - Trying to build a future beyond the past
2 June 2014

Building a future from the past

Ukraine on the edge
24 April 2014

The crisis, the community and the future

Turkey votes: Part II – Erdoğan reloaded
3 April 2014

Post-Election in Turkey analysis

Turkey votes: Part I - The storm before the election
26 March 2014

Pre Turkish vote analysis

Ukraine in deadlock – What next?
12 February 2014

Current situation in Ukraine, and the possible role of the EU.

Freedom of religion in Turkey - The Alevi issue
24 January 2014

The discrimination faced by the Alevi community

Pre-Summit Analysis
18 December 2013

The key topics on the agenda of this week’s European Council – Single Resolution Mechanism, contractual agreements, defence, EU-Ukraine, enlargement, and European External Action Service – must be treated with urgency by EU leaders, say EPC analysts in this Commentary.

Helping Moldova stay on the EU course - Proposals for a real 'more for more' approach
11 December 2013

In this Policy Brief, Cristian Ghinea, Amanda Paul and Victor Chirila argue that the EU should work for greater visibility, better public diplomacy and deliver visible, tangible benefits to the Moldovan population as rapidly as possible.

Ukraine’s European integration: between mayhem and opportunity
2 December 2013

As tension in Ukraine continues to rise, this Commentary by Amanda Paul and Vasyl Filipchuk analyses how and why the government made the decision to put on hold the signature of an Association Agreement with the EU, what could be the implications and scenarios for the future, and how the EU should respond.

Beyond Vilnius: keeping the Eastern Partnership on track
7 October 2013

Ahead of the November EaP Vilnius Summit, this Commentary by Amanda Paul looks at the challenges faced by the Eastern Partnership countries, the issue of Russian coercion and the EU’s response.

Between a rock and a hard place: What is Turkey’s place in the transatlantic market?
9 July 2013

For Turkey, a key partner of both the EU and US, the TTIP represents a considerable economic threat because of its existing Customs Union with the EU, which obliges Ankara to open its market to the countries with which the EU negotiates FTAs, yet at the same time Turkish products and services  are not allowed to enter these third countries since Turkey is not an EU member, write Amanda Paul and Serdar Yeşilyurt in this Commentary. 

Gezi Park one month on: what lies ahead?
27 June 2013

This Commentary by Amanda Paul and Demir Murat Seyrek focuses on the situation in Turkey one month on from the outbreak of mass protests, the steps taken by the government to ease the tension and meet the concerns of the protestors, the impact of the protests on relations with the EU, and their likely impact on the political landscape of Turkey.

Ukraine-EU: the next lap
21 February 2013

While the forthcoming 25 February EU-Ukraine Summit offers both sides an opportunity to air all issues of concern and reopen a clear political dialogue, it remains far from guaranteed that relations will get back on track. This Commentary by Amanda Paul and Vasyl Belmega analyses the prospects for success, outlines where the key challenges lie, and suggests steps that should be taken by both the EU and Kyiv.

Ukraine: The Moment of Truth
26 October 2012

This Commentary looks at the likely outcomes of the election, the different actors, and the possible impact of the poll on relations with the EU.

Turkey-EU relations: time to rebuild trust
19 October 2012

Turkey’s EU accession negotiations  continue to be riddled with problems. In this Commentary, Amanda Paul looks at the current situation and prospects for the near future.       

Georgia's future: between Euro-Atlantic aspirations and geopolitical realities
27 September 2012

In this Policy Brief, Amanda Paul and Zaur Shiriyev look at the challenges facing Georgia in terms of its Euro-Atlantic integration aspirations.

To sign or not to sign? That's the EU-Ukraine question
13 February 2012

In this Commentary, Amanda Paul looks at the future prospects for Ukraine-EU relations, lays out what could be expected over the coming months, looks at possible scenarios for the elections and argues why it is important for the EU to sign the Association Agreement with Ukraine.

Azerbaijan - The key to EU energy security
24 October 2011

This commentary by Amanda Paul and Gulmira Rzayeva analyses the state of play regarding the Shah Deniz II gas decision and the remaining difficulties ahead.

The EU and Ukraine - Where to next?
21 September 2011

In this Policy Brief on EU-Ukraine relations, Amanda Paul and Vasyl Belmega look at developments in Ukraine’s relationship with the EU since independence twenty years ago.

Turkish foreign policy and the Arab Spring
15 July 2011

In this Commentary, Amanda Paul and Demir Murat Seyrek offer an insight into the increasingly important role that Turkey is playing in its Middle East neighbourbood.

Turkey after the elections: time for consensus and pragmatism
16 June 2011

This Commentary, by Amanda Paul, looks at why the AKP has been so successful and sums up the likely priorities of the new government.

Addressing the security challenges in the South Caucasus
29 March 2011

Events in the Middle East and North Africa risk the EU taking its eye off the ball in the South Caucasus, argue Dennis Sammut and Amanda Paul in this Policy Brief.

The Turkey-EU deadlock
26 January 2011

Turkey’s EU membership negotiations enter 2011 in dire straits, says Amanda Paul in this commentary.

Entering the end game: the race for Caspian gas
27 October 2010

“Oil is money, gas is politics” is the theme of this commentary by Amanda Paul and Borut Grgic.

Nagorno-Karabakh – A ticking time bomb
17 September 2010

With recent intensified skirmishes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, this commentary by Amanda Paul looks at the current state of play, and says the international community gives the impression of being unconcerned about the increasing dangers of ‘war by accident’.

Cyprus - The beginning of a new era
21 April 2010

In this commentary Amanda Paul looks at likely changes in Cyprus following Devis Eroğlu’s election as Leader of the island’s Turkish Cypriot community, including the reunification talks and the likely impact on Turkey’s EU membership negotiations.

Ukraine under Yanukovych: plus ca change?
19 February 2010

In this Commentary Amanda Paul looks at the challenges facing Ukraine’s future President Viktor Yanukovych: creating political and economic stability, improving governance and strengthening the rule of law.

Turkish foreign policy - between East and West?
2 October 2009

This Policy Brief by Amanda Akçakoca argues that while Ankara is focusing more its own neighbourhood, its role as a key regional player and upgrading relations with Russia, it is unlikely to adopt an anti-Western foreign policy given the solid ties it has built with NATO, the US and the EU.

After Georgia: conflict resolution in the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood
29 April 2009

This Issue Paper by Amanda Akçakoca, Thomas Vanhauwaert, Richard Whitman and Stefan Wolff analyses the conflicts over South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh, and makes a series of recommendations for more effective EU policies and approaches to enable it to play a stronger role in resolving these decades-old disputes.

Cyprus: heading for a solution?
18 June 2008

This Commentary by Amanda Akçakoca argues that while both sides will need to demonstrate levels of political will hitherto unseen, be ready to scale back their demands, abstain from playing the blame game and be resilient to nationalistic attacks, the new momentum provides a unique window of opportunity that should not be missed.

Ukraine and the EU after the elections: more of the same?
19 December 2007

This Policy Brief by Amanda Akçakoca and Richard Whitman analyses the likely impact of recent developments in both Ukraine and the EU on the relationship, and considers what both sides need to do to forge closer ties.

EU-Turkey relations 43 years on: train crash or temporary derailment?
30 November 2006

This Issue Paper by Amanda Akçakoca charts the history of relations between the two sides, assesses the state of play in Turkey’s reform process and warns that domestic issues are likely to distract the government from membership negotiations over the coming year, whatever the outcome of the current crisis.

Cyprus - Looking to a Future Beyond the Past
13 May 2005

One year after the rejection of the United Nations' Peace Plan for Cyprus, commonly known as the Annan Plan, Amanda Akçakoca, examines the prospects for renewed talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots to reunify the island and end the division that has lasted for more than 30 years.

Turkey - Ready for the EU?
28 September 2004

In a personal commentary Amanda Akçakoca, Fraser Cameron and Eberhard Rhein point to its geo-political significance in the region and insist that the problems Turkey’s accession may pose – given both its size and its relative poverty – are capable of being resolved.

Turkey vs EU Ambition: Implementation of Reforms and Cyprus are the Answer
7 November 2003

Amanda Akçakoca comments on the enormous achievements made by Ankara over the past 12 months, and looks at the remaining difficulties as well as the controversial issue of Cyprus.