As NATO leaders meet in Ankara on 7–8 July, the Alliance confronts one of the most consequential strategic moments in decades. The Summit takes place amid unprecedented pressure on transatlantic cohesion, a rapidly shifting US posture and intensifying demands on European allies to assume more responsibility. After The Hague defence spending pledge, Ankara promises to be a summit focused on implementation. Debates will focus on Ukraine’s long-term security, the Alliance’s deterrence and defence posture, the industrial ramp-up needed to sustain high-intensity conflict, and the broader question of how NATO adapts to a world in which Europe must prepare for a more uncertain role of the US.

How will the defence investment plans translate into real capabilities? Are leaders prepared to scale up the defence industrial base at the speed and volume demanded by current threats, including through procurement reform, SME integration and transatlantic industrial cooperation? Will Allies advance a credible framework for Ukraine’s security, including sustained military assistance, co-production and long-term capability development? Will NATO strengthen its deterrence posture, clarify the credibility of Article 5 in light of Russia’s persistent hybrid aggression, and accelerate efforts to close critical capability gaps? And will the Ankara Summit offer a coherent vision for NATO’s future in a more contested global environment, and what role might the EU play in this context?

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