The EU and its members are facing severe and overlapping pressures — geopolitical confrontation, geoeconomic shocks and a persistently fragile economic outlook — at a time when political leadership is lacking at national and European level. The scale of the challenges demands higher ambition, faster decision‑making and a greater willingness to act collectively — but both national capitals and Brussels are struggling to provide strategic direction. Instead of clarity and resolve, we see fragmented priorities, short political horizons and leaders increasingly preoccupied with domestic turbulence.

This leadership vacuum risks deepening just as Europe needs coherence most. Elections in key member states – including France, Germany and Poland – are likely to narrow political room for manoeuvre, making difficult decisions even harder to take. Can EU leaders muster the political will required to navigate a more volatile and dangerous global environment, defend Europe’s economic and security interests and deliver a credible long‑term strategy? Or will Europe’s capacity to act be constrained precisely when the costs of inaction are rising?

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