Europe’s Welfare State Futures: Strengthening Resilience to 2035 amid Rising Defence Budgets, Demographic Change, and Populism

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, demographic change and growing political polarisation, the EU and its member states face the challenge of increasing defence spending while safeguarding social welfare and environmental priorities. In collaboration with the Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos (FFMS), this project examines how competing demands on public finances can be reconciled without undermining the European social model or public trust.

Combining political-economy analysis with a foresight-driven approach, it assesses the trade-offs involved in national budgetary choices and EU spending priorities and their implications for social cohesion and resilience.

Through internal and external expert workshops, the project will identify key trends, develop and validate future scenarios and formulate policy recommendations. The findings will inform three policy briefs looking ahead to 2035, focusing on the future of social Europe and welfare states, the climate transition and migration governance.