2025 presidential elections in Poland: What are the implications for the country and the EU?
On 1 June 2025, the second round of presidential elections in Poland took place. After weeks of intensive campaigning and a tight race, voters rendered their verdict. Supported by the national-conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS), Karol Nawrocki won with a narrow majority of 50,89% of the overall votes. The result will be consequential for domestic developments, as well as Poland’s engagement in the international arena.
This election showed the persisting polarisation between Poland's two main political camps: the liberal-conservative Civic Platform (PO) and national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), augmented by a particularly high voter turnout of 71,63%. A visible shift to the right was observed, with more radical candidates winning around 21% of the votes in the first round and gaining popularity especially among young people. The far-right has been on the rise in Poland for the last decade, with formerly-fringe candidates now entering parliament and far-right parties more than doubling their vote share. Many of their voters came out in support of Nawrocki.
The campaign revolved around three key topics. The first was migration, predominantly discussed in the context of domestic security and access to resources for migrants already living in Poland. Second was economic and industrial policy regarding investment plans for Poland, reducing the cost of living, and lowering taxes. Last was the significant divide on social/cultural issues, and further European integration. Defence spending, meanwhile, was the least polarising issue.
The result of the election heralds a difficult time ahead for the country. In domestic affairs, it is expected that President-elect Nawrocki will adopt a confrontational style of cohabitation with the incumbent government, possibly resulting in legislative paralysis and a lack of coordinated action. Regarding Poland's European engagement, Nawrocki campaigned on Eurosceptic attitudes: he recommended that Poland should withdraw from some key policy areas of the European Union; particularly from the European Green Deal and the Pact on Migration and Asylum. He also rejected joining the eurozone, relying on the narrative of national sovereignty against strict dependence on so-called ‘European elites’. He also criticised the measures taken by the EU in response to the changes in the Polish judiciary and democratic system, pushed by the previous PiS-led government.
In general, Nawrocki painted an antagonistic picture of an EU attempting to curtail Polish sovereignty and subordinate the country to Brussels and Berlin - a narrative that has been used often by his PiS party over the past decade. Instead, he promoted the strengthening of bilateral relations with the United States and multilateral formats, such as the Visegrad Group. Although in Poland the role of the President is weaker than that of the Prime Minister, the discord of differing policy positions between them will affect Poland's standing in the international arena.
The outcome of this presidential vote is an important proxy for the upcoming parliamentary elections. The vote will take place in 2027 - or sooner, should the vote of confidence called by Donald Tusk a day after the election - fail. A changing mood in society indicates dissatisfaction with the current liberal government in a growing segment of the electorate. President-elect Nawrocki should also consider a potential government change occurring in the middle of his term: either a retrenching of Tusk's government, or a return of the PiS party, possibly in a coalition with the rising tide of far-right parties. Either of these scenarios will have a long-lasting impact on Poland's role in Europe and the world.
Maria Skóra is a Visiting Fellow at the European Policy Centre, as part of the 2024/5 re:constitution Programme.
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