Saving Ukraine requires talking tough to Trump on trade, too
Europe’s desire not to displease US President Donald Trump was on full display again this last weekend, as leaders “welcomed the continued US efforts to bring peace to Ukraine”. The need to stay at the negotiation table is understandable, but by historical standards Trump’s 28-point ‘peace plan’ echoes the appeasement of Munich in 1938, as senior Republican and Democratic senators have noted.
The plan is disgraceful in every respect. The US and Russia have negotiated over the heads of Ukraine, the EU and NATO, letting Moscow dictate terms that would not only force Ukraine to surrender more territory but also strip away its ability to defend itself. Instead of maintaining sanctions on Russia until it fully withdraws and pays reparations, the Trump team is chasing opportunities for US–Russian investment, gutting Europe’s €140 billion Reparations Loan scheme and jeopardising Ukraine’s economy and military for years to come.
The cravenness of key Trump Administration figures should not blind Europeans to the deeper geostrategic divergence emerging between the US and Europe. Following the tradition of ‘grand chessboard’ thinking, Washington aims to pull Russia away from China as a step toward preserving American primacy. Europe, by contrast, faces a vengeful adversary in Russia and still clings – perhaps naïvely – to hopes for a managed, balanced relationship with China.
Europeans have much to take responsibility for themselves. By now, they should know their counterpart in the White House. As a Financial Times commentator recently noted, fawning over Trump is not only humiliating – it doesn’t work, as Europe learned this summer. Contrary to what has been said, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s disputed trade deal was never about saving Ukraine; it was about preventing European disunity and protecting the German car industry. At best, it bought time; at worst, it signalled that Europe’s interests simply don’t matter in Washington.
Over the weekend, European negotiators unveiled their own 24-point peace plan: ceasefire, monitoring, legally binding security guarantees, negotiations from the current line of control and a fully rebuilt, compensated Ukraine. The hurried diplomatic effort has met some success. Yet it will only matter if Europeans are ready to back it with real power – financial and military – and raise the cost to Trump of ignoring Europe.
Leaders must be prepared to tell Trump that if this summer’s EU–US trade deal saves neither European jobs nor Ukraine’s sovereignty, they will disown it. Europe cannot defend Ukraine’s future while clinging to an agreement that trades away its own leverage.
Georg Emil Riekeles is Associate Director at the European Policy Centre.
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