Europe in the World in 2025: Navigating a perilous world with realism and ambition

Launch of the Outlook Paper 2025

2025 will be a year of profound change. The new EU leadership following the 2024 European Parliament elections will have to engage with a rapidly deteriorating regional and global environment, challenging the EU’s aspiration to deliver democracy, security, sustainability and prosperity for its own citizens, let alone its transformative power elsewhere.

For the first time in decades, Europeans can no longer rely on a benign partner on the other side of the Atlantic, leaving them dangerously exposed and acutely vulnerable, including on the very foundations of liberal democracy.

Until recently, the US dominated a world order that was a favourable environment for the EU to extend its membership, further develop, and play out its strengths, in particular as a trading power, without having to worry much about geopolitics. Suddenly, liberal Europe looks very lonely, and is struggling to keep up with a world of change.

Like past editions, the fourth EPC Outlook Paper aims to map key regions, players and global trends, and identify opportunities for the EU to make a difference, delivering on its 2024-2029 mandate. 

Over the course of 7 chapters and 35 sub-chapters, this Outlook Paper sets out to provide an ambitious panorama of global developments, debates, and tensions that will shape the world in the year ahead. The chapter on Regions and Players takes stock of the situation in countries and regions across the world, including Europe, North America, Latin America, the Indo-Pacific region, the Far East, Africa, the Caucasus, the Middle East and Central Asia. The chapter on Flashpoints highlights the intergovernmental dynamics, governance questions, institutional trends and geopolitical challenges influencing the direction of global developments. The chapter on Policies, Emerging Challenges and Opportunities examines some of the most significant policy agendas and dilemmas, as well as identifying pressing risks and looming challenges, but also the windows of opportunity that may open and close as the year progresses. 

This sounds almost innocent compared to the disruptive change at play in the world. Yet, it remains vital and valid to understand the trends that are shaping the world through an EU-European perspective. There is no doubt that the world today looks very testing for European leaders. However, change always comes with opportunity. Europe urgently needs a positive vision on how its engagement with a changing world can be beneficial for European countries and societies.

The Outlook Paper 2025 is published at a time of great uncertainty, with fast-paced change across the world. The coming months will reveal whether the forecasts and structural themes of this compilation are well-founded.