After vote, Netherlands faces another coalition and credibility test
As a volunteer at a Dutch polling station, I had the unique opportunity to witness the gripping outcome of the Dutch elections firsthand last night. While counting the votes, I saw the piles for D66, the progressive liberals, growing in equal measure to those for Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV). With PVV overtaking D66 as largest party and the difference now 2,341 votes, the result remains on a knife edge.
Although the final tally is still too close to call, the pro-European D66 appears poised to lead coalition talks. Its optimistic campaign focused on housing, green energy and preventive healthcare. If D66’s Rob Jetten becomes prime minister, he will not only be the youngest at 38, but also the first social-liberal and openly gay prime minister in Dutch history.
Wilders, on the other hand, lost nearly a third of his voters after an unusually subdued campaign and credibility damage caused by the chaotic Schoof cabinet, which was forced to resign following a disagreement over asylum policies. As a result, none of the major parties are willing to collaborate with Wilders again.
The Christian Democrats have made a remarkable recovery from their historic low in 2023, while the conservative-liberal VVD fought back from poor polling by focusing on defence and security leadership. Their campaign centred on opposing the GreenLeft-Labour alliance led by Frans Timmermans and encouraging strategic votes for VVD to prevent Timmermans from gaining power.
Despite Timmermans’ extensive experience in national and European politics, his alliance underperformed. Following this disappointing outcome, Timmermans resigned as party leader last night.
The outcome is positive news for mainstream pro-European parties but also fraught with uncertainty. D66 will need to collaborate with multiple parties to form a workable coalition – no small task given that the leading party has never been so small in Dutch history.
Given that all major parties have refused to work with Wilders, he appears to have returned to his stronghold: the opposition. His party remains one of the biggest, and it is too soon to dismiss him, as he will likely continue to divide public opinion from the sidelines.
With city council elections approaching in March 2026, few parties will be willing to compromise, as they will soon begin campaigning again. The question now is whether the Netherlands can re-establish itself as a reliable EU partner after years of instability. Over the past year, the country has seen four different ministers handling migration. Despite ambitious promises on asylum opt-outs and nitrogen cuts, negotiations in Brussels have yielded few results, tarnishing the Netherlands’ reputation as a constructive member state.
While there is broad support for raising defence spending to 3.5% GDP and solidarity with Ukraine, Dutch politics will remain inward-looking as coalition building begins anew.
Elizabeth Kuiper is Associate Director at the European Policy Centre
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