Wilders walks out: as a fresh election looms, the Dutch can’t afford another long wait for a government
Geert Wilders’ withdrawal of support for the governing coalition is déjà vu from 13 years ago. The remaining parties might have spared themselves the experience of inviting Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party into government, had they remembered their history from 2012.
Then, Wilders withdrew his support for a minority coalition led by current NATO chief Mark Rutte. Collaboration ended in 2012 when Wilders, whose PVV had come third in a 2010 election, refused to agree to austerity measures. This time around, having topped the polls in the parliamentary election 18 months ago, Wilders called on his ministers to leave the government in a dispute over asylum and migration policies.
It took 223 days after the vote in November 2023 to form a government in which Wilders reluctantly agreed to forgo the premiership that normally goes to the victorious party leader. Those 223 days offer a glimpse of what the future may now bring.
Once they had agreed to serve under the non-affiliated civil servant Dick Schoof as prime minister, it became clear very quickly that the four parties that formed the new administration had little in common. Presented as an experimental government with 50% of the cabinet consisting of technocratic experts and the other 50% of party-affiliated ministers, the coalition suffered from a lack of joint vision from the start.
At the national level, Wilders put migration at the centre of the political debate; that led to paralysis and trade-offs with other important issues, such as the green transition and housing policies. At the EU level, a non-binding vote by the Dutch parliament to oppose the Commission’s debt-driven €800bn rearmament plan in March was particularly embarrassing for a founding member of the Union.
In turn, Wilders has lately been criticising the government, including Prime Minister Schoof, over the Dutch push to review the EU’s political and economic agreement with Israel because of the situation in Gaza - as well as on the Netherlands urging the Commission to act against Hungary’s anti-LGBTQ laws.
Wilders decision to walk away comes at a pivotal moment for the EU, after national-conservative Karol Nawrocki was elected Poland’s president on Sunday and The Hague prepares to host a NATO summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in three weeks. With the allies expected to boost defence spending, it would be awkward, to say the least, for Schoof if the Dutch cannot reach an agreement.
Political stablity doesn’t seem to be on the cards for the Netherlands in the near future. Although Wilders’ party may lose a few seats if a new election is called, he will still command one of the largest groups in parliament. The Labour opposition, led by former Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans, has already ruled out propping up what remains of Schoof’s coalition, and called for fresh elections as soon as possible.
None of the scenarios for the upcoming months will be easy. But, in these times of geopolitical instability, the Dutch can ill afford another 223-day wait for a government.
Elizabeth Kuiper is Associate Director and Head of the Social Europe and Well- being programme at the European Policy Centre.
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