Another “refugee crisis”? Why Iran is no Syria
As tensions escalate between Israel, the United States and Iran, some have warned of a new “refugee crisis”, particularly if instability evolves into a wider conflict or civil war. The EU Asylum Agency has warned that Iran already hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations, and that even partial destabilisation could generate refugee movements of unprecedented magnitude.
The European Commission has so far struck a more cautious tone, reporting no significant changes in migration patterns, even as the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) describes the escalating crisis as a major humanitarian emergency and reports 100,000 internal displacements inside Iran in just days.
There are reasons to believe that mass arrivals from Iran to Europe are unlikely in the immediate future. Iran today is not Syria at the outset of its civil war.
Still, migration crises rarely appear suddenly at Europe’s borders. The Syrian conflict began in 2011, yet large-scale arrivals to the EU only materialised in 2015 after years of regional displacement. When conditions in host countries deteriorated, migration routes became more consolidated, and European governance systems were unprepared for the sudden arrivals.
Europe today is different from 2015. Migration governance has tightened, public attitudes have hardened and the EU’s Pact on Migration and Asylum will begin applying in 2026. However, deterrence should not be mistaken for resilience.
The real question therefore lies in the region. Neighbouring countries already face significant pressures, while humanitarian systems remain underfunded. If regional protection systems become overwhelmed or restrict entry, displaced people may have fewer opportunities to remain safely in nearby countries; the time between regional displacement and onward movement could therefore become shorter rather than longer.
If Europe wishes to avoid future migration shocks, its focus should remain on the region, supporting host countries, sustaining humanitarian funding and preventing further regional destabilisation.
Alberto Horst Neidhardt is a Senior Policy Analyst and Head of the European Diversity and Migration programme.
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