“Europe is at war, and Ukraine is Europe’s front line.”
With that warning, moderator Amanda Paul, Deputy Head of Europe in the World Programme at the European Policy Centre, opened an EPC Policy Dialogue marking four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Co-moderated by EPC analyst Iana Maisuradze, the discussion unfolded against a sobering political backdrop. Earlier that day, the European Union failed to approve its 20th sanctions package and a €90 billion macro-financial loan for Ukraine. Meanwhile, over 15,000 Ukrainian civilians have died since 2022. Millions are enduring subzero temperatures amid continued strikes on critical infrastructure.
Despite four years of war, Ukraine’s state, economy and defence industry remain operational. Vsevolod Chentsov, Ambassador of Ukraine to the EU highlighted the resilience of the Ukrainian people: “Ukraine became a phenomenon of resistance and creativity.” He stressed that with continued support, Russia’s defeat remains possible. “Putin failed to achieve any of his goals," he said. “On the contrary, a new Ukrainian nation is born.”
Representing the Council, Marilena Raouna, Deputy Minister for Europe of Cyprus, translated that urgency into institutional terms. Ending Russia’s war is a core priority of the current Cypriot Presidency of the Council of the EU. Drawing on Cyprus’ own history, she warned: “We woke up to the reality that there are no frozen conflicts. If aggression is rewarded … our global security is weakened.”
The European Union is working towards disbursement of the €90 billion package by April. Raouna framed enlargement as strategic, underlining that a state with occupied territory can join to the EU – as Cyprus did in 2004. Enlargement remains “our most successful foreign policy tool.” Technical work on accession clusters 3, 4 and 5 will be presented at the upcoming informal General Affairs Council in Cyprus.
Ireland, set to assume the Council Presidency on 1 July 2026, signalled continuity with the Cypriot Presidency. Thomas Byrne, Minister of State for European Affairs and Defence, highlighted Ireland’s participation in the coalition of the willing, insisted that in the face of illegal invasion, “there is no such thing as neutrality, and neutrality would be immoral.” He expressed confidence that the 20th sanctions package would eventually be adopted – as all previous 19 – with unanimity.
Sandra Kalniete, Member of the European Parliament (European People’s Party, Latvia), argued that although Europe is Ukraine’s strongest supporter, it still underestimates what is at stake. Ukraine now fields the most battle-hardened army in Europe. “Russia is trying to use peace talks to get what it cannot achieve on the battlefield.” She also called for increased pressure on China, “the main enabler of Russia’s war.”
Tetyana Ostra, Co-Founder of the Boryviter Center of Excellence, sharpened the warning: “Modern war moves faster than European defense systems designed to adapt.” Ukraine’s technological agility and combat-tested capabilities are vital to strengthening Europe’s own defence industrial base.
From the European External Action Service (EEAS), Baiba Tavaresa likewise described the package as “not a matter of if, but when.” Rejecting narratives of war fatigue, she emphasised sustained EU leadership in financial and military assistance and the EEAS’s efforts to compensate diplomatically for Russia’s broader global reach. “We are helping Ukraine to build the battle of narratives,” she said.
On fast-tracked accession, she diverged from other speakers, arguing that reforms must come first. “I think we owe this to Ukrainian people,” she said, referencing the 2014 Maidan. Olena Prokopenko of the German Marshall Fund responded with domestic context: 83% of Ukrainians support EU membership as a guarantee of security and democracy.
From Washington, Damian Murphy of the Center for American Progress added a transatlantic dimension. While expressing shame at the US abstention in the UN General Assembly to back a “lasting peace” in Ukraine, he pointed to bipartisan congressional backing of Ukraine. The Senate sanctions bill with 80 co-sponsors, for example, “would deal a crushing blow” to Russia.
Following Washington’s strategic recalibration, speakers converged on the conclusion that Europe is now Ukraine’s primary financial and political backer. As Tavaresa put it, since the Alaska Summit, Europe has been at least “around the table; not necessarily in the room, but outside the room.”
Still, the underlying message for Europe was consistent: more is needed. Prokopenko warned that current assistance is “barely enough to keep Ukraine in the fight, let alone make progress.”
Concrete priorities emerged across the discussion – reinforcing air defence; scaling drone production; expanding long-range capabilities; curbing Kremlin oil revenues; dismantling the shadow fleet; channeling frozen assets to recovery; and fully implementing the sanctions toolkit.
As Ambassador Chentsov concluded, “It is not a wakeup call. It is a standup call.”
Jessica Moss is Coordinating Editor at the European Policy Centre.
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