Globalisation’s near-death experience and the future of Europe’s economic security
As globalisation teeters on the brink, Europe faces a critical juncture. To safeguard its future, the EU must weave economic security into the fabric of international institutions, prioritising sovereignty, innovation and resilient supply chains. Forums like the Brussels Economic Security Forum and the Europe Future Forum are vital for defining the scope and strategies of economic security, ensuring Europe can navigate an era of weaponised interdependence and global disruption with a clarity of purpose.
The extent of disruption in global economic relations is unprecedented. The surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty translates into a sharply deteriorated outlook. As a result, talk of the death of globalisation proliferates. However, the global trade system holds. The latest World Trade Organisation (WTO) projections foresee 0.9% growth in world merchandise trade in 2025, an upward revision from the 0.2% contraction the organisation predicted in April. Asian economies are expected to be the largest positive driver of global trade growth in 2025.
This means that the world has bifurcated. Trade with and around the United States (US) is slowing while the rest of the world continues to trade largely as normal. Another WTO analysis suggests that roughly 72% of global goods trade is still operating based on ‘most favoured nation’ tariff terms, down from 80% at the beginning of the year. There has been some knock-on protection in third countries, but it has been relatively modest and mostly sector-specific.
This publication was presented as the Keynote of the Europe Future Forum 2025 and is republished by permission of Visegrad Insight. Read the full version here.
Paweł Świeboda is a Senior Visiting Fellow and Co-Director of the Brussels Economic Security Forum, the EPC's flagship project on economic security.
The support the European Policy Centre receives for its ongoing operations, or specifically for its publications, does not constitute an endorsement of their contents, which reflect the views of the authors only. Supporters and partners cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
