There will be many different takes on Israel’s surprise attack on Iran and what the short- and long-term consequences will be. But one thing it is not: a surprise.
Benjamin Netanyahu has clearly been willing to use military force with complete disregard to any long-term consequences, consistently ignoring objections by others. Iran has been in his crosshairs for a while, and not only for its nuclear programme. After its ineffectual attack on Israel last year, many were speculating that Iran was at its weakest, unable to repel an attack. In that logic, now would be the best moment to strike.
Those speculating on an Israeli offensive included many in or close to the incoming Trump administration, who were reluctant for the US to get involved directly but more than happy to give Netanyahu a free hand – also to force Iran to make concessions. Trump’s reaction to the strikes is best understood in this context.
His often repeated calls for peace are clearly hollow and do nothing to stop conflict. On the contrary, by displaying his biases and tolerance for aggression by some, it will fuel violence, not only in the Middle East but also in Europe.
All of this has been happening in plain sight, so Europe’s governments have had plenty of time to consider their collective response. Yet, once again, Europe looks like a mere bystander, reacting belatedly and disjointedly, in part based on a misreading of Trump’s intentions. That does not bode well for the crucial upcoming NATO summit.
Fabian Zuleeg is Chief Executive and Chief Economist at the European Policy Centre.
