Following the 2009 ‘gas war’ with Ukraine, Russia took steps to initiate new gas pipelines that exclude several Eastern European countries from the gas transit. The Nord Stream 2 (NS2) and Turk Stream 2 projects are intended to tighten the grip of Russia’s Gazprom on EU markets. Despite criticism from Brussels and increasingly vocal opposition from Poland and other Eastern European Member States, Germany continues to push forward with NS2.

This Policy Dialogue - organised in cooperation with the Ukrainian Industry Association Federation of the Employers of the Oil and Gas Industry - looked at the geopolitical and security implications of the Nord Stream 2 & Turk Stream 2 projects. It assessed the possible impact of the German elections on NS2 and German-Russian relations; analysed to what extent the EU Green Deal has been considered, and whether the vague assurances given to Ukraine would be sufficient to deter Russia from weaponising energy.

“From the German side, Nord Stream 2 was a business project, but there are no purely business projects for Russia; any business is politics in Russia, and any politics is business; we will need to re-evaluate the situation during the coalition negotiations,” said MEP Sergey Lagodinsky. In addition, “Nord Stream 2 and Turk Stream 2 essentially undermine Europe’s energy security strategy that outline that the EU must diversity its energy sources, routes and suppliers-these projects run counter these priorities,” warned Agnia Grigas, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

On the other hand, Ukraine is facing more direct implications. "The transformation of Nord Stream 2 into a weapon is not a hypothetical scenario, not a one-time event. This is a process that will begin as soon as the pipeline is operational. The situation is deteriorating from a political perspective, but no one can predict what other dramatic events may unfold once the EU attempts to respond. Most EU countries objected to the Nord Stream 2 construction, but this didn’t stop the Kremlin from putting pressure as it sought to complete it at any cost," said Sergiy Makogon, the CEO of Gas TSO of Ukraine.