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The US presidential elections and the impact on the Iran nuclear deal and regional security situation

Tuesday, 27 October 2020


Adnan Tabatabai
Co-founder and CEO, Center of Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient
Barbara Leaf
Ruth and Sid Lapidus Fellow & Director, Geduld Program on Arab Politics The Washington Institute for Near East Politics
Cornelius Adebahr
Non-resident Fellow, Carnegie Europe


Amanda Paul
Senior Policy Analyst, European Policy Centre

As the US presidential election approaches, there is growing speculation on its implications for the future of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). Since the Trump Administration withdrew from the historic 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran has faced increasing sanctions and restrictions. Struck by a global pandemic, falling oil prices and two years of ‘maximum pressure’ US policy, Iran’s economy is under severe strain. While neither the US nor Iran wants war, the situation could escalate quickly with far-reaching implications for regional security. The possibility of a change of administration has given rise to heightened Iranian interest as the Democratic candidate Joe Biden said he is interested in returning to the JCPOA. If the Trump Administration is re-elected, the tough policy approach could risk destabilizing the broader Persian Gulf, with direct consequences for Europe.

This on-line Policy Dialogue will examine the impact of the US presidential elections on the Iran nuclear deal and the possibility of renewed negotiations between Tehran and the West with a focus on the implications for the EU and the potential implications for security in the region.


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