Brexit: No stable equilibrium

18 April 2019
Larissa Brunner (Policy Analyst)

EU leaders’ decision to extend the Article 50 process to 31 October averted a no deal Brexit on 12 April. However, even if the UK leaves the Union in the autumn, there will still be uncertainty, as none of the three possible outcomes of the Article 50 process – deal, no deal or remain – will result in a stable equilibrium. In this Policy Brief, Larissa Brunner predicts that, given the political dynamics in the UK and the deep split within its population and the main parties, the question of the country’s relationship with the EU will continue to dominate domestic politics for many years to come. She explores the different scenarios and their implications, coming to the conclusion that, from the EU’s perspective, any outcome will be suboptimal as its preferred outcome, the UK as a fully committed member state, is simply not within reach in the foreseeable future.

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