The US-dominated world order was a favourable environment for the EU to develop and play out its strengths, in particular as a trading power, without having to worry much about geopolitics. This era has come to an end. Suddenly, liberal Europe looks lonely, and seems to be struggling to keep up with a world of change, including one of opportunity.
No doubt, the world is very testing for Europeans in 2025. If Europeans do not make significant progress in owning their own continent’s security this year, this failure will create acute vulnerability. The erosion of international law is accelerated by a US president poised to undermine its principles of cooperation and territorial integrity. Multilateralism as part of the EU’s DNA is on the backfoot.
In recent years, Europeans have lost precious time to prepare for what in many ways is a hostile environment for the EU – but still one full of global opportunity. In the meantime, liberal Europe and its institutions have been weakened from within by nationalist, far- and extreme-right forces. Liberal Europe urgently needs a positive vision for how its engagement with a changing world can be beneficial for European citizens. Otherwise there is a risk of European electorates further falling victim to political forces that portray themselves as the avantgarde for a good future.
EU countries and societies still have a great deal of resources at hand to navigate and, albeit to a lesser degree, shape this changing world in their favour. The EU will have to catch up fast to reshape and adapt old partnerships and alliances and, more importantly, forge new ones. This starts with a solid mental rewiring among European elites who have become too used to receiving global attention and benefiting from a benign environment to flourish in over the past 30 years.
Almut Möller is Director for European and Global Affairs and head of the Europe in the World programme at the European Policy Centre.
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