Friedrich Merz will be voted into office as the next Chancellor of the German Federal Republic in the Bundestag on 6 May. How should Brussels read the future Chancellor?
Merz will want to show that he gets Europe right: by overcoming the period of notorious “German votes” (abstentions in Brussels due to a lack of consensus in the previous coalition government) and in key bilateral relations with Warsaw, Paris, London and, more challengingly, Rome. Merz has already invested in relationships, including with key European People’s Party (EPP) leaders, both in Brussels and in European capitals. Expected policy differences mean Germany’s engagement with Brussels is unlikely to always run smoothly.
But if Merz invests further in relationships, this will be time well spent.
At home, Merz hit the ground running well before taking office. He engineered a constitutional reform to loosen the debt brake on defence investment and unleash a massive infrastructure package. At the European level, he will feel the pressure to keep up this pace, given the urgency for the Coalition of the Willing to help Ukraine prevail, and for the EU to navigate the global trade transformation.
Much of the new Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre at the European level will be determined by the domestic context. For the first time, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has overtaken the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in recent polls.
More than anything else, European security will determine Merz’s term in office.
The oath of protecting the German people from harm will weigh more heavily upon his shoulders than on any of his predecessors. One should not underestimate the level of determination that Chancellor Merz will show, along with his partners in Europe, to deliver on that promise.
Almut Möller is Director for European and Global Affairs and head of the Europe in the World programme at the European Policy Centre.
The support the European Policy Centre receives for its ongoing operations, or specifically for its publications, does not constitute an endorsement of their contents, which reflect the views of the authors only. Supporters and partners cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
