EU releases its 2040 climate target: A walk-back by any other name?
Delayed for months by internal disputes, the European Commission's newly released 2040 climate target proposal reflects more compromise than conviction. Suggesting a 90% cut in emissions from 1990 levels, this comes with significant caveats—most notably that up to 3% of the cuts can be met through non-EU carbon credits. This, alongside other flexibilities, points to a broader weakening of EU climate ambition at a critical juncture.
The inclusion of carbon credits, despite concerns over their effectiveness and fairness, contradicts the ESABCC’s advice to avoid them. Under its own Climate Law, the EU is bound to reach net-zero by 2050 through domestic reductions. Yet the EU remains off track for 2030 despite Commission claims to the contrary, based on newly submitted national climate plans. However, these hinge on full implementation; far from guaranteed in the context of green backlash, regulatory simplification (arguably deregulation), and budgetary strain over competing priorities. With near-term progress in doubt, deferring action beyond 2040 risks missing climate targets when it’s too late to adjust. Moreover, a weakened target is a missed chance to lead in a decarbonising global market, as EU businesses themselves push for strong climate policy as a matter of competitiveness.
Relatedly, the proposal suggests integrating CO₂ removal mechanisms within the carbon market, despite their uncertain viability. While climate technologies are essential to the EU’s transition, technological optimism must be matched with structural emissions cuts. Overreliance on potential future solutions without near-term reductions prolongs emissions, deepening climate impacts.
There is also the question of international credibility. The EU is already late in submitting its 2035 climate targets under the Paris Agreement, after also having faced criticism for its role in pushing for a lower climate finance target at last year's climate conference, COP29. A watered-down 2040 target risks weakening trust at a time when the EU is courting strategic partners to secure its supply chains and rival China’s growing influence on the global stage.
With 85% of Europeans viewing climate change as a serious global threat, decreasing ambition is politically short-sighted. Instead of diluting climate commitments, particularly those for 2040, the EU should focus on supporting the delivery of net-zero in collaboration with European citizens and businesses.
Brooke Moore is a Policy Analyst in the Sustainable Prosperity for Europe Programme at the European Policy Centre.
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