Le Pen’s “rebirth” is a challenge for France’s liberal democrats

Convicted again, but still a candidate. On 7 July, the Paris appeal court found French far-right leader Marine Le Pen was guilty of embezzlement for diverting European Parliament funds to the benefit of her party, the National Front (since renamed National Rally). Judges also reduced Le Pen’s sentence compared to the first trial in 2025, making her eligible for the next presidential election in April and May 2027. Later in the evening, Le Pen announced that she was running. 

Seen from an EU perspective, this latest twist raises two questions: Can Le Pen win the election and become the president of the EU’s second-biggest member state? What should the EU expect in the coming months? 

Everyone expected Jordan Bardella to be the RN’s candidate. Le Pen now will run on a ticket with Bardella as candidate for prime minister if she is elected. This two-headed candidacy may prove a strong campaigning machine, combining Le Pen’s experience and appeal to core RN voters with Bardella’s social media skills and appeal to more traditional conservative voters.  

But while Bardella was preparing his expected campaign, he shifted the RN’s positions on number of issues, economically more liberal, more critical on Russia and more open to cooperation with other right-wing parties. Le Pen will have to decide which political line to follow, between her anti-system trademark, including radical opposition to the EU, and Bardella’s business-friendly search for respectability. A balancing act between the two lines would expose her to old questions over the RN’s ability to govern.  

In any case, the RN’s platform will most likely include a drastic reduction of France’s contribution to the EU budget, a referendum on the primacy of EU law over migration policy and a limitation of free movement in the Schengen area. A France-first stand will be the central tenet of the Le Pen-Bardella ticket. 

Despite being convicted, Le Pen will probably remain high in opinion polls and will be the favourite to win a plurality of votes in the first round in April. But the presidential election is a two-round exercise, and she will still face the challenge of winning a majority of votes on 2 May 2027.  

The key issue there is who can be Le Pen’s opponent in the second round. This puts the onus on moderate parties from the left, centre and right to agree on candidates who are strong enough to create a momentum in the first round in their own camp and mobilise voters of the other camps in the run-off.  

Le Pen’s narrative is already clear: a people’s candidate combating the domestic and EU system to achieve “France’s rebirth”. France’s moderates must now rise to the challenge and offer an honest and convincing narrative for liberal democracy.  

Eric Maurice is a Policy Analyst in the European Politics and Institutions Programme at the European Policy Centre.

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