Hungary after Orbán: The case for phased rule-of-law conditionality
Hungary’s upcoming elections on 12 April 2026 could mark the first real attempt to dismantle an entrenched illiberal system from within the European Union. This would be a turning point for the EU. But removing an illiberal government is easier than rebuilding the rule of law.
Since Orbán’s return to power in 2010, domestic rule-of-law backsliding has had spillover effects across the Union. Hungary is now widely considered to be in violation of core EU principles, including loyal cooperation and to pose a challenge to the Union’s political cohesion and security.
A defeat of Viktor Orbán’s could open the door to restoring democratic standards in Hungary, with implications for the Union’s unity and credibility. However, a government led by his main challenger, Péter Magyar, would not automatically resolve all tensions between Budapest and the rest of the EU. Some of his positions remain close to Orbán’s on key policy issues, including support for Ukraine, the EU budget, agriculture policy and EU integration.
It would nevertheless be in the Union’s interest to support a democratic transition and Hungary’s reintegration into the community of liberal democracies.
If Magyar wins, the EU will face a fundamental dilemma: how to support democratic transition while preserving the credibility of its rule-of-law enforcement. While the EU has developed tools to sanction democratic backsliding, it lacks a clear framework to support and verify democratic recovery.
This paper argues that the EU should adopt a principled but pragmatic approach based on a phased conditionality – understood here as a sequencing approach whereby financial support is progressively unlocked in parallel with verifiable institutional reforms rather than frontloaded or withheld entirely.
The EU should agree with a new Hungarian government on a binding rule-of-law restoration plan with clear milestones and timelines, while adapting implementation to political and institutional constraints. In doing so, it should be ready to take into account the political and institutional obstacles left by the Fidesz regime and calibrate milestones to allow for progressive disbursements. At the same time, Hungary should serve as a pilot case to strengthen the EU’s rule-of-law toolbox and develop a structured mechanism for democratic restoration.
Read the full Policy Brief here.
Eric Maurice is a Policy Analyst in the European Politics and Institutions Programme at the European Policy Centre.
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