Russia’s aerial incursions in the Baltic: A rehearsal for war
Russia’s repeated violations of NATO airspace in the Baltic region and Romania in September 2025 mark a shift towards a more offensive posture. These strategic moves follow Russian President Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic and military successes at the Alaska Summit and ZAPAD-2025 exercises.
The instantaneous reversal of the US position on Ukraine ceasefire and sanctions – central demands of Europe and the raison d'être of the Alaska summit – convinced Putin that he has more leverage over US President Donald Trump than Europe does. The joint ZAPAD-2025 military exercises with Belarus, although reduced in scope, battle-tested Russian warfighting readiness against NATO’s eastern flank. The use of drones and nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles, scheduled for deployment to Belarus later this year, confirmed for Russia that it could expand its military presence on NATO’s borders and fight its war in Ukraine at the same time.
Moscow has wasted no time probing NATO’s military preparedness and political resolve. This is deeply concerning given cuts in US support to the Baltic states and Europe more broadly, and warnings that Russia may attack NATO before 2030. NATO responded by scrambling forces and launching the Eastern Sentry activity, while the European Commission put forward the “drone wall” initiative to bolster eastern defences.
Against the backdrop of Russia’s repeated airspace violations, NATO faces pressing choices. Its room for manoeuvre – legal, political and military – is now under discussion in both NATO and the EU. This policy brief argues that unless NATO and the EU take composed but forceful action, Russian aerial violations in the Baltic region risk escalation – with possible fatalities.
Read the full policy brief here.
Maria Martisiute is a Policy Analyst with the Europe in the World Programme at the European Policy Centre.
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