All eyes are on Germany, ahead of the country’s snap elections on Sunday. The sheer scope and extreme pace of current international developments that Europe has to contend with will set the agenda for the next German government.
The new German government will need to shift both gear and policies to help make the Single Market and European security fit for purpose in this time of profound challenge. For that to happen, Germany’s next government will have to significantly adapt its mental map and strategy, perhaps more than any other EU country. And it will have to prove that its European instinct is real, and not merely symbolic.
Understanding new transatlantic and global realities will absorb a lot of attention in Berlin. But the domestic arena will be what matters most immediately. There will be a strong focus on sucking the oxygen from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) to prevent its further electoral success. Hardened EU policies on migration can play a helpful role for Berlin at times.
But there should be no illusion; on European security and the economy it will prove very difficult for the next German chancellor to align with his partners in Europe. Public opinion will create tremendous pressure, and changing course on Germany’s open and mercantile outlook on the world will be a tall order, as will overcoming the transatlantic instincts of large parts of its elites. Germany’s post-WWII DNA on the use of military force and on financing EU policies adds to this complex set of simultaneous challenges.
While Germany continues to be an important member state of the EU, it is by no means a given that the next government will be up to the task.
Almut Möller is Director for European and Global Affairs and head of the Europe in the World programme at the European Policy Centre.
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