As US President Donald Trump weighs whether to join Israel’s air campaign against Iran, US force movements suggest the window for action is fast approaching. The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is heading to the region to join the USS Carl Vinson CSG, while American destroyers are already positioned in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. A fleet of US Air Force tankers just crossed the Atlantic, and the UK has reinforced its presence in Cyprus. All signs indicate a fast-approaching decision point on whether the US will support or join in a strike against Iran’s buried nuclear sites.
This is no routine show of force. Only US B-2 bombers can deliver the GBU-57 “bunker busters” needed to reach Iran’s deepest facilities. That means that if Trump greenlights an attack, it won’t be indirect support—it will be an unmistakably American intervention.
The consequences would be severe. While Trump’s MAGA base fumes over betrayal of the “no new wars” slogan, the broader world would see a US-Israel axis launching unilateral strikes without UN backing, deepening mistrust in both states. With the Global South already skeptical of Western double standards, a new war without any real attempts at diplomacy could fracture coalitions and fuel further instability.
The choice Trump faces isn’t just military. It’s about legitimacy, restraint, and whether America ever learned the cost of going it alone.
Caught between an unpredictable US partner, an isolated Israel, and the threat of regional spillover, Europe faces a strategic void. The EU has no clear policy lever in this crisis, no unified deterrent posture, and few options to influence Washington or Tehran. If the strikes go forward, US bases in Europe could become terror targets, without the Union ever having a say in the escalation.
In short, Europe is at risk but not at the table, a dangerous place to be with yet another conflict on the horizon.
Chris Kremidas-Courtney is a Senior Visiting Fellow at the European Policy Centre.
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