Belgium’s Francken: Real Ukraine ceasefire unlikely with Putin’s goals unmet
Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken was a key speaker at the European Policy Thought Leadership Forum on 21 October 2025, moderated by the European Policy Centre's Chief Executive Fabian Zuleeg, where he discussed his country’s efforts to strengthen its defence industrial base, the shifting US–Europe relationship, and prospects for peace in Ukraine.
With US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin set to meet in Budapest to discuss peace in Ukraine, Francken cautioned: “I hope for peace, but I don’t believe in a real ceasefire. Putin’s strategic objectives remain unmet, and Ukraine will not surrender occupied territory. There may be a fake ceasefire, but not a real one.”
He called for stronger sanctions, economic pressure and sustained military aid to make Russia’s war too costly to continue. Belgium has pledged €1 billion in military assistance this year, bringing its total support to €2.4 billion since 2022, including F-16 training, ammunition, mine-hunting support and drones.
On industrial policy, Francken stressed that Europe must revitalise its defence industrial base through state investment and private innovation. Belgium will allocate €350 million annually to military R&D, €4 billion over the next decade. He urged universities to embrace dual-use research and investors and governments promote faster procurement to help small firms scale innovation.
He opposed the growing call to use Russian assets frozen in Western banks and Euroclear to fund Ukraine, warning of Significant legal risks and pending claims in Belgium. If those assets were given to Ukraine and “later returned to Russia in a peace deal, who would pay the compensation? Belgium could go bankrupt.”
Francken highlighted the need for closer cooperation between US and European defence industries, citing the F-35 programme as a model of shared production and technology. He also supported deeper European integration, highlighting Belgium’s naval, land and air project partnerships with the Netherlands and France.
While defending higher defence spending, Francken reaffirmed Belgium’s commitment to meeting NATO’s 2% target by 2029.
“It’s crucial that NATO’s defence-planning requirements align with those of the EU so that member states aren’t pulled in different directions,” he said. “I’m 100 percent pro-NATO and 100 percent pro-EU; strategic autonomy and transatlantic cooperation can coexist.”
Click here to watch the recording of the event.
Rajnish Singh is a Media Outreach Executive at the EPC Communications team.
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