Geopolitical EU meets reality, again: Europe’s not too sunny summer
Before the summer break, July was foreseen to project the EU’s strategic weight in geopolitics and geoeconomics. High-stakes meetings like the EU-China Summit and EU-US trade talks offered Brussels an opportunity to showcase what it had learned and prepared for in the past few years. Instead, they exposed the internal fragility of the EU.
Let’s be honest—the Commission entered these talks in a position of weakness. Not because the EU lacks economic firepower/clout, but because member states themselves undercut its leverage. In addition, the EU found itself squeezed between a China unwilling to make any meaningful concessions, and the need to avoid a fully-fledged confrontation with the White House.
The trade talks with Washington were not negotiations, but rather a managed retreat. The message from some capitals was clear: avoid confrontation at all costs, prioritise predictability—however fragile it may be—concede when necessary, and call it diplomacy dressed up by pragmatism. The result? A package of concessions spun as the “biggest deal ever made.”
It is, however, unfair to place all the blame on the Commission alone. Dealing with the constraints and wishes from the member states is not an easy task. But this tells Washington that Brussels will likely fold under pressure (even if it’s sold positively at home). This is something that is likely to be tested again, especially if the EU struggles to deliver on its own promises made during the trade talks.
The real question is not what US President Donald Trump will learn from this, but what everyone else will. When summer ends in September, July’s lessons will not be forgotten.
Ivano di Carlo is a Senior Policy Analyst in the Europe in the World programme at the European Policy Centre.
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