Starmer's resignation shows the limits of imitating the right
Keir Starmer’s resignation as prime minister confirms the failure of two strategies pursued by some centre-left parties in recent years. The first is the attempt to confront the permacrisis with moderate, cautious policies. Starmer’s government was characterised by soft measures that failed either to deliver meaningful results or to shift the anti-establishment mood and political dissatisfaction among citizens. This was similar to Germany’s Olaf Scholz's government, offering little more than a continuation of traditional politics.
The second strategy to fail has been to pander to the far-right surge by moving rightward on several issues, particularly on migration. The assumption is that voters drifting towards the populist right can be won back if mainstream parties absorb a more moderate version of the right’s own positions. However, evidence shows that this only makes immigration more salient in public discourse and ultimately benefits the far right, as voters tend to prefer the original (Reform) to the watered-down imitation (Starmer-led Labour). Moreover, such policies alienate progressive voters, helping to explain why Labour lost support to the Green Party. At a moment of deep crisis, moderation and rightward drift appear inauthentic to an electorate already distrustful of politicians.
It is in this context that Andy Burnham is the clear favourite to succeed Starmer. Originally from the suburbs of Liverpool, he is firmly rooted in northern England, a region where Reform has made major gains and where he defeated them in the Makerfield by-election. His more clearly left-wing economic positioning allows him to contrast with Reform on jobs, public services and regional investment, rather than competing with Farage on diluted versions of Farage’s own arguments. Moreover, although he has been in politics for a long time, he has cultivated an image of being close to ordinary people and the working class, which fits with the broader trend of presenting candidates as outsiders to the establishment. However, Burnham faces a difficult situation as he will have to project an anti-establishment image while still sharing many positions on Israel/Gaza and migration with Starmer. Let’s hope his northern image and more left-leaning positions can project boldness.
Mainstream parties facing populist right insurgencies in Europe face a choice between convergence and contrast. Starmer pursued convergence, betting that credibility could be borrowed by shifting toward Reform's territory. That bet ended badly. Other European parties may want to take note before assuming imitation is the safer path.
Javier Carbonell is a Policy Analyst in the European Politics and Institutions Programme at the European Policy Centre.
Fenja Tramsen is a Programme Assistant in the European Politics and Institutions Programme at the European Policy Centre.
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